The global Oil and Gas market is entering 2026 under significant price pressure, driven by a consensus forecast of a substantial supply surplus that is expected to continue building inventories. As of late 2025, Brent crude oil prices have been fluctuating around $61–$65 per barrel (with a recent quote at $61.71/bbl), having fallen from a 2025 average of approximately $69/bbl. The primary consensus forecast for 2026 indicates a meaningful step down, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projecting Brent to average around $55/bbl for the year, due to non-OPEC+ production growth consistently outpacing modest demand increases. This bearish sentiment is a key takeaway from current energy market reports: $\text{Global Oil Market Outlook and Forecast 2026}$

1. Key Market Fundamentals (2026)

• Supply Growth: Non-OPEC+ supply, primarily from the United States (U.S. crude oil production forecast at 13.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd)), Brazil, Guyana, and Canada, is expected to continue its robust expansion, running significantly faster than demand growth.

• Demand Growth: Global liquid fuels consumption is forecast to increase modestly by about 1.2 MMbpd in 2026, driven almost entirely by non-OECD countries, with China and India being the primary engines of demand. Global manufacturing stabilization is preventing a stronger rebound.

• Inventory Build-up: Analysts, including the EIA, forecast global oil inventories will continue to rise throughout 2026, putting persistent downward pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a potential surplus of over 3.8 million barrels per day into 2026, a figure which severely limits the ability of OPEC+ to meaningfully tighten the market.

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